Coronavirus epidemic predictions

WTF has Coronavirus to do with MiniBe? Did I "mak-a a mistak-a"? No, Coronavirus is perfectly suitable for the introductory post in this blog abut minimal way of living. Virus' size is about 1 micrometer. It has reduced its structure down to the basics, the pure parasitic DNK, to the border line between living and non-living things. It can't get more minimal than this! Yet, this minimal, mindless thing manages to almost crush the civilization of the most glorious species in the evolution of life (by its own proclamation, though). Which makes you wonder if "purpose" or "intelligence" really matter. So let the virus be the star of the opening post of this blog.

I simulated the epidemics by a simple model, which I will discribe here in short. During the epidemic the virus spreads in the population P. At a certain time there are four non-overlapping groups of people in the population. N are the people who haven't been affected by the virus, but are susceptible to infection. C are the contagious: people infected by the virus who can spread the disease to susceptible. D are those who were infected and died. R are those who were infected, recovered and became immune (i.e. are not susceptible). We also define a group A=C+D+R, i.e. people affected by the virus in any way. The groups are related by: P=N+C+D+R=N+A. Epidemic ends when C=0.

The basic parameters of the epidemic are the contagiousness c, mortality m and survival s. The virus spreads in a day i by new infections ΔAi from the group C according to the rules:

ΔAi=Ci-1 c ,  ΔDi=ΔAi m,  ΔRi=ΔAi s

Epidemic data in the world population on day 27 may 2020 and projection for two future months is shown on the following figure. According to this prediction the epidemic will last till the end of July and will cause about 555000 deaths.

Covid-19 epidemic in  the world; real data up to 27-May-2020 and projection.